Earlier today, you were presented with a puzzle about shy voters who may give inaccurate answers in opinion polls due to embarrassment. The puzzle involved finding a polling method that allows voters to provide their honest preferences without feeling uncomfortable. Here’s a simple solution to the puzzle:
Imagine an election with two candidates, let’s say Trump and Harris. As a pollster, your goal is to determine the percentage of voters supporting each candidate. To make voters feel more at ease revealing their true preferences, you can use a coin flipping method.
Ask each voter to flip a coin twice in private. There are four possible outcomes: TH, HT, TT, and HH. If a voter gets TT, they should say they will vote for Trump. If they get HH, they should say Harris. For TH or HT, they can provide their honest preference.
This method gives voters plausible deniability, allowing them to attribute their response to the coin flip rather than their actual preference. By subtracting the ‘coin’ votes from the final tally, you can determine the true ratio of Trump to Harris supporters.
This technique, known as ‘randomised response’, has been used for surveys on sensitive topics like drug use or sexual preference since the 1960s. While it may not be common in political polling, it offers a creative way to address the issue of shy voters in elections.
If you’re curious about whether pollsters have used this method in political contexts, feel free to share your insights in the comments below. Puzzle enthusiasts can look forward to more brain teasers in the future, so stay tuned for the next challenge!
