Today’s topic is about shy voters who may not feel comfortable expressing their true opinions to pollsters. In the past, conservative parties like the Conservatives have often performed better in elections than predicted by polls. This phenomenon is known as the ‘shy Tory’ effect, where voters may lie to pollsters due to embarrassment in publicly admitting their preferences. With the upcoming US election being highly contested, the presence of shy Trump or Harris voters could potentially sway the results.
The question arises – how can we encourage shy voters to overcome their embarrassment and provide honest responses to pollsters?
Imagine a scenario where there are two candidates, Trump and Harris, and many voters feel hesitant to disclose their choice. As a pollster, your goal is to accurately determine the percentage of voters supporting each candidate. Can you devise a polling method that would make shy voters feel comfortable enough to share their true preferences, even if they are embarrassed? The method should yield a fairly accurate poll result, even if not completely precise.
I will return at 5pm UK time with a solution to this puzzle. Please refrain from sharing spoilers and instead, feel free to share any personal experiences where you may have been less than truthful with pollsters.
In other news, I would like to take this opportunity to mention my new book, “Think Twice: Solve the Puzzles That (Almost) Everyone Gets Wrong.” The book aims to challenge readers to think about their thinking processes, while enjoying the thrill of being misled. The puzzles included are not meant to trick, but rather to expose our biases and flawed reasoning. To show your support for the Guardian and Observer, you can order a copy of the book at guardianbookshop.com, with possible delivery charges. (For readers in the US, the book is titled “Puzzle Me Twice.”)
Since 2015, I have been sharing puzzles here on alternate Mondays and am always on the lookout for intriguing challenges. If you have any puzzle suggestions, feel free to email me.
