Claims that England’s grammar schools will be overwhelmed by an influx of students priced out of private schools due to VAT on fees are not supported by data from over half of the selective state schools. The number of children registered to take the 11-plus entrance tests for grammar schools in September has actually decreased slightly compared to last year.
Figures from 91 out of 163 grammar schools in England show that the total number of pupils registered to sit the tests has dropped from 80,317 last year to 80,091 this year. This contradicts the predictions made by some Conservative MPs before the general election that the end of the VAT exemption for private schools would lead to a surge in applications to grammar schools.
While some schools have seen an increase in registrations, others have experienced a decline, resulting in an overall decrease in numbers. For example, in Kent, the most selective county in England with 32 grammar schools, the numbers dropped from 18,175 to 17,655. Similarly, fewer families registered their children for the test at grammar schools in Birmingham, Bexley, and Sutton.
Despite claims from the Independent Schools Council (ISC) that there has been a 1.7% drop in private school pupil numbers this September, the Department for Education (DfE) reports a 2.3% fall in primary school applications and a 1.7% drop in secondary applications. The decline in state school enrollments is also attributed to the UK’s declining birthrate over the past decade.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) predicts that between 3% and 7% of pupils may move from the private to the state sector due to the addition of VAT. However, the declining birthrate suggests that private school rolls would have decreased regardless of the VAT issue. The DfE states that the state sector has the capacity to absorb any students transitioning from the private sector.
Despite the concerns raised by the ISC and some Conservative MPs, the data does not support the theory that there will be a significant increase in students transferring from private schools to grammar schools due to VAT on fees. Instead, the numbers show a slight decrease in registrations for the 11-plus entrance tests compared to the previous year. This suggests that the impact of VAT on private school fees may not be as significant as initially anticipated.