A recent study conducted by ACT has investigated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the predictive validity of high school grade point average (HSGPA) and ACT Composite scores in forecasting first-year college performance. The research revealed that while the predictive power of high school GPA has decreased since 2020, ACT Composite scores have remained a reliable indicator of students’ early college success.
Success in the first year of college has been linked to successful and timely degree completion. HSGPA and standardized test scores like the ACT have traditionally been used to predict a student’s first-year college GPA (FYGPA), providing valuable insights for students to better prepare for higher education and for colleges to identify students who may require additional support.
The study analyzed students’ ACT Composite scores, self-reported HSGPAs, and official FYGPAs to predict a student’s FYGPA and compared these predictions with the actual FYGPA. The research found that while the mean HSGPA increased from 3.44 in 2017 to 3.59 in 2021, ACT Composite scores decreased from 22.51 in 2018 to 21.90 in 2021.
Dr. Edgar I. Sanchez, a lead research scientist at ACT, highlighted that high school GPA has become a less consistent predictor of first-year college GPA post-pandemic, whereas ACT Composite scores have shown stability in predicting FYGPA. This suggests the need to reassess the predictive power of high school grades and adopt a more holistic approach to predicting student success in college.
As colleges strive to evaluate students accurately during the admissions process and navigate the ongoing effects of the pandemic, the study’s findings offer important insights into how colleges can enhance student performance assessment. Janet Godwin, ACT CEO, emphasized the importance of accurately assessing academic readiness to support students effectively and ensure they are prepared for the challenges of higher education.
The study, based on a sample of 40,194 students across 10 postsecondary institutions, recommends a holistic approach that combines HSGPA and ACT Composite scores for a more nuanced prediction of student FYGPA. Using both metrics together was found to improve predictions more effectively than using either measure alone.
Key findings from the study include significant grade inflation in high schools post-pandemic, with HSGPA becoming a less consistent predictor of FYGPA, while the relationship between ACT Composite scores and predicted FYGPA remained stable. Additionally, the mean ACT Composite score slightly decreased from 22.34 in 2017 to 21.90 in 2021, while the mean HSGPA increased from 3.44 in 2017 to 3.59 in 2021.
Overall, the study underscores the importance of reevaluating the predictive value of high school GPA and adopting a comprehensive approach that considers both HSGPA and ACT Composite scores to enhance the accuracy of predicting student success in college.
