Private schools are facing a significant drop in enrolments this year, with many attributing the decline to the impending addition of VAT to school fees. According to the Independent Schools Council (ISC), a survey of 1,185 member schools in the UK revealed a 1.7% decrease in rolls compared to the previous year. This decrease could potentially lead to over 10,000 pupils moving from private schools to state schools, costing the Department for Education (DfE) around £80m in England alone.
The ISC has expressed concerns about the impact of the VAT policy on independent schools, warning that many smaller schools could be at risk of closure as a result. The addition of VAT, which is expected to be implemented from January, is projected to cause between 3 and 7% of pupils to transition from private to state schools over time, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).
In addition to the VAT issue, private schools are also facing challenges due to the declining national birthrate and rising school fees. The DfE reported a 2.3% decrease in applications for primary school places and a 1.7% decrease in secondary school applications this September. This trend is further exacerbated in certain regions, with London councils anticipating a 4.3% drop in secondary school enrolments and some boroughs experiencing a 10% decrease in primary school-age enrolments.
Despite the decline in private school enrolments, the state sector is also expected to experience a decrease in pupil numbers over the next few years. The DfE forecasts a reduction of 172,000 students, or more than 2%, in state schools in England by 2028. This projected decrease suggests that the state sector has the capacity to accommodate the influx of pupils from private schools.
While private schools are contemplating legal action against the VAT policy, they are also seeking to collaborate with the government to address the challenges posed by the impending changes. The ISC is advocating for a delay in the implementation of VAT and a thorough review of its impact on students with special educational needs and disabilities.
As private schools navigate through these turbulent times, it is essential for them to strategize and adapt to the changing landscape of education in the UK. By exploring innovative solutions and working closely with the government, private schools can overcome the challenges posed by the VAT policy and ensure the continued provision of quality education for their students.
